By Alex Rizkallah, OSINT Analyst
Photo 1: Global Connectivity by NASA
Introduction
By the year 2030, the Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) industry is projected to reach a valuation of $36.24 billion USD1. This surge in value coincides with a massive increase in the volume of online data, which has quadrupled since 20172. As a result, publicly available tools and information have become indispensable for a wide array of research firms looking to enhance and supplement their core service offerings. The rapid expansion of real-time data has empowered researchers to triangulate information from diverse sources, providing a more nuanced, comprehensive, and verifiable understanding of complex issues. For example, media sources and investigative outlets have heavily relied on OSINT to shed light on the recent advances of M23 in eastern DRC. At ORB, OSINT is leveraged by researchers and analysts to corroborate claims made by participants in focus groups, deepen the contextual understanding of primary research and even assist in shaping research design, amongst others.
Definition:
IBM defines OSINT as “the process of gathering and analyzing publicly available information to make decisions or answer specific questions”3. Beyond advanced web searches, open-source information can be gathered from diverse sources, such as social media, specialized websites, news outlets, and multimedia content. For example, at ORB, we have used OSINT techniques such as image forensics to verify the authenticity of news reports on political protests, helping us determine whether certain media sources were spreading disinformation.
Strengths and limitations of OSINT in market research
To effectively use OSINT in market research and analysis, researchers and firms must understand its strengths and limitations to determine its suitability for their specific objectives.
Strengths:
- Enhanced Contextual Awareness: OSINT helps researchers understand the social, political, and cultural environment in which they are conducting studies. This is especially valuable for research in areas with volatile political landscapes or rapidly changing public sentiment.
- Real-Time Monitoring: With near real-time data availability, OSINT enables researchers to monitor dynamic changes in public opinion, news cycles, or social events that might impact respondent behavior or sentiment, and therefore strengthen real-time insights from public polling surveys to better capture and reflect changes on the ground.
- Cost-Effectiveness and Accessibility: As OSINT relies on public data, it can reduce the costs associated with proprietary data collection, making it an accessible option for exploratory research in new markets or regions.
Limitations:
- Data Reliability and Verification: Public sources can sometimes be unreliable or biased. The accuracy of OSINT depends heavily on careful verification and triangulation, which can be time-consuming.
- Ethical and Privacy Concerns: Using public data, especially from social media, must be managed with a strong ethical framework to avoid privacy issues and comply with data protection regulations such as GDPR.
- Limited Coverage in Certain Regions: OSINT is less effective in regions where digital infrastructure is limited or where information is tightly controlled by the government, making it challenging to obtain comprehensive data.
How OSINT enhances market research capabilities
Now that the strengths and limitations of OSINT have been established, we will explore how researchers can integrate open-source research across all phases of the research cycle to enhance and supplement their primary research.
Research Design: OSINT can enhance the design phase of primary research by offering a deeper understanding of regional nuances, cultural practices, and emerging trends. For instance, if a researcher is investigating humanitarian aid preferences in a post-disaster context, OSINT insights on local infrastructure and logistical challenges could help refine survey questions to make them more contextually relevant. This approach ensures that questionnaires resonate with respondents’ lived experiences, increasing data accuracy and relevance.
Sampling and Fieldwork: Drawing a representative sample is critical in market research, particularly in rapidly evolving regions. OSINT tools, such as satellite imagery and public demographic data, can be instrumental in identifying patterns of urbanization, migration, and population shifts. This enables more precise sampling in areas where traditional demographic data may be incomplete or outdated.
Data Collection: During data collection, OSINT can provide timely context on factors that might influence respondents’ attitudes. For example, real-time analysis of social media sentiment surrounding political events can help researchers anticipate and interpret sudden changes in public opinion that might affect survey responses. OSINT can also inform researchers if specific questions are sensitive or potentially controversial in a particular region, helping to tailor data collection approaches accordingly
Analysis and Interpretation: OSINT supports data analysis by allowing researchers to cross-reference findings with public data, adding depth to traditional research insights. This approach can be especially useful for gauging public opinion on topics like political sentiment or economic confidence in regions where direct questioning may be challenging.
Practical Applications: Integrating OSINT into Routine Research Workflows
To integrate OSINT effectively, researchers and analysts at research firms can follow these practical steps:
- Embed OSINT in Research Planning: Incorporate OSINT research early in the project to inform research design, sampling strategies, and question development.
- Utilize OSINT Verification Tools: Invest in tools and training for OSINT verification to ensure data reliability and enhance credibility. This might include image forensics software, metadata analysis, or cross-referencing tools.
- Train Teams on Ethical OSINT Use: Given the ethical considerations of using public data, train researchers on privacy standards and legal compliance, especially when using social media data or other personal information.
In conclusion, as global markets become increasingly complex and interconnected, the integration of OSINT into traditional market research offers powerful advantages for international polling and research firms like ORB. OSINT’s ability to provide real-time, context-rich insights allows researchers to better understand and respond to shifting social, political, and cultural dynamics—especially in volatile or under-researched regions. By embedding OSINT across all research phases, from design to analysis, firms can enhance the accuracy, relevance, and strategic impact of their insights, ultimately enabling more informed and responsive decision-making in a rapidly evolving world.
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1 Global Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) Market 2024 – 2033 | Custom Market Insights
2 Volume of data/information created, captured, copied, and consumed worldwide from 2010 to 2023 | Statista