By Daniil Chernyshov and Izzy Colledge
Photo 1: Moldovan Elections
“There can be no secure EU, no secure Poland, France, and Germany without an independent Moldova,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in late August, a reminder of just how much was at stake in September’s parliamentary election.1 Moldova’s vote was never only about domestic politics. It was about the country’s place in Europe, and whether it could withstand growing regional instability and Russian influence.
Maia Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) has won a narrow but unexpected majority of 50.2% in Moldova’s parliamentary election, reaffirming the country’s pro-European direction at a time of deep uncertainty.2 The elections were held on Sunday, September 28, 2025, to elect all 101 members of Moldova’s Parliament.
Fear, rather than fatigue, defined this election. ORB International’s extensive local polling across Moldova shows that many voters, though frustrated with slow progress at home, were motivated by concerns about instability, the war in Ukraine, and the risk of reversal on Moldova’s European path. The result was not a wholehearted endorsement of PAS’s record, but a collective decision to stay the course.
Conviction Amid Frustration
ORB’s in-depth monitoring of Moldova’s domestic landscape over the past few years suggests that, despite widespread frustration with living standards and governance, Moldovans remain committed to the country’s European trajectory. That conviction has proven decisive. While many anticipated voter disengagement and a drift toward the opposition parties, PAS managed to channel unease into motivation, rallying the pro-European vote and holding on to its core electorate. The result highlights a paradox: even amid frustration with domestic policies failing to address poor living standards and the increasing cost of living, Moldovans continue to vote for continuity in the country’s pro-European direction.
A Campaign About Identity, Not Policy
The campaign was dominated by interests on the international arena. PAS deliberately avoided traditional policy debates on wages, prices, or healthcare, instead framing the vote as a choice between Europe and Russia. They reframed the election from an assessment of government performance to a question of national identity. This helped turn it into a statement about the country’s future direction rather than a judgment on the current government. The opposition, fragmented and reactive, failed to shift focus to domestic concerns or produce enough moments that could have challenged PAS’s control of the narrative. PSRM remained anchored in its traditional, ageing base, while the Alternative Bloc struggled to project coherence or credibility as a governing force.
Turnout: The Decisive Factor
Turnout exceeded expectations and proved pivotal. For the first time in years, older voters did not dominate the polls. Voters aged over 55 make up around 44% of the electorate, yet in this election, they accounted for only 32% of those who turned out (CEC). Meanwhile, participation among young and working-age Moldovans surged. The explanation is revealed in ORB polling and regression analysis conducted in the months before the election. Younger voters were driven not by economic optimism, but by anxiety: about war in Ukraine spilling over, instability in the region, and Moldova’s future on the international arena. Their engagement was also shaped by a “moral duty” to vote, one of the strongest positive predictors of turnout in our model. Although disillusioned with the political process, they turned out to protect the country’s Western course.
The Challenge Ahead
Moldova’s challenge now lies beyond the ballot box. The electorate has chosen continuity, but its patience is finite. The same voters who turned out to defend the country’s direction will expect tangible progress on corruption, justice, and prosperity. PAS has secured time and a mandate to implement change, but not immunity from disillusionment. The message from voters is clear: keep Moldova moving forward, or risk losing the driving force that just saved it.