ORB’s latest poll looks at how Tory party members would vote at the next general election IF Brexit IS delivered vs. IF Brexit IS NOT delivered by the 31st October.
Results show that if the UK does not leave on 31st October, 44% of Conservative members who are definite voters* would not vote for the Conservative party at the next general election, preferring other parties, or saying they are as yet undecided.
The majority of definite voters who would defect would choose the Brexit Party; they would receive 35% of the vote if the UK has not left the EU by 31st October.
If the UK does leave the EU by 31st October, 92% of definite voters would choose the Conservatives at the next general election, with just 1% remaining undecided. At the same time the Brexit Party’s share would be substantially diminished, with the party receiving only 5% of the vote.
*Definite vs. Soft Voters: Definitions
Q) As a Conservative Party member you are entitled to vote for the next Conservative leader, who will also become Prime Minister. On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is definitely would not vote and 10 is definitely would vote, how likely is it that you will vote in the Conservative leadership election?
1 – Definitely will not vote
10 Definitely will vote (ONLY THESE ARE DEFINITE VOTERS)
- Q) If the Conservative leadership election was held today, which candidate would receive your vote? (Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt, DK)
- Q) (DK only) Even if it is only slight which candidate are you leaning towards voting for? (Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt, DK)
- Q) Thinking about your vote for , how likely would you be to change your mind and vote for a different candidate. (Very likely, Somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, very unlikely)
Soft voters are those who are initially undecided how they will vote, or who are very / somewhat likely to change their minds.
N=511 interviews conducted amongst a sample of Conservative party members. Fieldwork was carried out between 28th June and 1st July 2019. The statistical margin of error at the 95% confidence level is + 4.4%.