Each and every month since November 2016, ORB International has tracked confidence in the Brexit process. We have surveyed over 2000 people across the UK each month, and asked them two very simple questions :-
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way in which the Government is handling the Brexit negotiations?
Q2 How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
a. I think the Prime Minister will get the right deal for Britain in the Brexit negotiations
b. Britain will be economically better off post Brexit
c. Post Brexit, I think I personally will be financially better off (NEW from December 2018)
d. Having greater control over immigration is more important that having access to free trade with the EU / Having access to free trade is more important than having greater control over immigration*
(* 50% of the sample were shown the first statement : 50% of the sample were shown the second statement)
In the month where the UK is scheduled to leave the EU we reveal that confidence in the process is at an all time low. Fewer than one in five (17%) think the PM has got the right deal for the country. Almost two in three (63%) feel she has failed to get the right deal. The PM has gone from a high in February 2017 when 47% felt she would get the right deal to just 17% now. The trend since the disastrous outcome of the 2017 election has largely been one way since – a loss in confidence.
Similarly this time two years ago more than one in two approved of the Brexit negotiations. Today we see 83% disapproving.
Our monthly tracker also reveals that the closer we are to Brexit day, the more concerned we are financially. In March 2017 50% of us were confident Britain would be economically better off post Brexit. Today that figure is 34%.
Two years ago today similar proportions (49%) said that controlling immigration was more important than access to free trade. Since May 2018 we are regularly prioritising free trade over controlling immigration.
Charts are available here, and full tables are available here.
N=1997 interviews conducted among a representative sample of the GB adult population March 1st-3rd 2019. The statistical margin of error at the 95% confidence level is + 2.2%.