ORB/Independent Poll SEPT 2015

One in five of those who voted Labour is the last general election say they are now more likely to vote Conservative at the next election

On the upside, now that Labour actually has a leader in place people think they look more electable than when we asked the same question at the end of July – back then 24% said more electable, 76% less.   Almost two months later 41% say more electable and 59% less.   Perhaps most interestingly is the pick up in Scotland and the North East.   Opinion is also evenly divided in the capital which will enthuse some in the party.

However, the long term prospects are less favourable with almost three in four (72%) claiming he does not look like a Prime Minister in waiting.  Even among those he is trying to appeal to the most (social group DE) a majority (67%) feel he doesn’t look Prime Ministerial.  Figures are almost identical (68%) for those working in the public sector.    Of those who voted Labour in the last general election opinion is again divided – 53% say he is a PM in waiting, 47% that he is not.   So his party may well be divided but his wider constituency is also hardly enthusiastic.

When we analyse the impact Corbyn’s victory has had on past vote, worrying for Labour one in five (20%) who voted Labour just over 4 months ago say his election as leader has makes them more likely to vote Conservative at the next election.   37% of past Labour voters say he is LESS LIKELY to make the vote Labour.  However, he may be able to help with a fightback in Scotland as 36% of those who voted SNP last time say they are now more likely to vote Labour


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