Campaign So Far Has One in Three More Inclined to Leave

Since last month we have seen a shift in opinion towards Brexit – 52% now believing the UK should leave and 48% remain. There remains a significant difference in opinion by social class (AB’s in and DE’s out) and age (the oldest group of 65+ are twice as likely to say leave rather than stay)

As with any election turnout is key.  The poll reveals men are more likely to turnout than women, and as with many general elections older people are currently showing more interest in voting. Regionally the debate appears to have got the Scots most engaged.  When the in/out question is weighted to turnout the Leave increases to 54% while the remain stays at 46%, suggesting that a higher turnout is more likely to favour Brexit

Since the announcement last week the media has been saturated with stories about the vote.  With both campaigns officially launched what impact has the coverage had on the minds of voters?  One in four (24%) say it has made them more inclined to vote to remain while one in three (32%) say it has made them more inclined to vote for Brexit.   Looking at those who voted Conservative in 2015 the gap is even larger – 24% report being more inclined to remain in the EU, 41% more inclined to leave.  

Despite much debate from both business leaders and politicians on the threat to the economy of leaving, there has been little shift in opinion on the risk to the UK of Brexit - last month 82% agreed there was some risk, 81% this month

The PM’s main message appears to be that “Britain will be safer, stronger and better off by remaining in a reformed European Union”…. Well 44% agree with him, 39% disagree.  Within his own party opinion is evenly split – 42% agree, 43% disagree.

Last weekend Boris Johnson stole the headlines with his decision to support Brexit.  Three in five (60%) say his decision does not make them any more likely to vote to stay, while 26% say it has made them more likely to vote to leave.  Slightly more (48%) however do agree with his statement that “the only way to get the change we need with the EU is to vote to leave” than disagree (37%)

Finally onto one of the drivers of vote.  Many often whittle this down to a debate on immigration and the economy.  One in two (50%) agree that “the economy is a bigger issue that immigration when considering how to vote”, 35% disagree.

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Feb 2016 Data Tables

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